Retail Sales – May 2016

By |2016-11-17T15:47:40+00:00June 21st, 2016|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

Consumer spending proved to be the biggest surprise of April and is at least a pleasant surprise in May. Retail sales rose a very solid and better-than-expected 0.5 percent with strength evident, though to a less degree than in April, through the balance of the report. Auto sales did give a boost to total sales but sales ex-auto, up 0.4 percent, were nearly as solid. Gasoline, reflecting higher prices, once again gave an outsized boost to sales [...]

Retail Sales – October 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:04:59+00:00November 15th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Retail sales slowed in October but fundamentally remain solid. Sales rose only 0.1 percent. But when excluding vehicles, which slipped back after surging in prior months, and when also excluding gasoline stations, where sales once again fell on price weakness, core sales rose a respectable 0.3 percent which hits the consensus. And there are solid gains - including housing-related components of furniture & home furnishings and building materials & garden equipment. Nonstore retailers also show a strong [...]

Buy and Hold?

By |2016-11-17T16:06:48+00:00October 23rd, 2015|Categories: Global Market Update|Tags: , |

What’s going on with consumers? Personal consumption is incredibly important. We’re constantly told that consumers make up more than 2/3rds of our economy, although that probably overstates the case. Medical expenses, for example, are considered part of consumer demand, even though the government pays for about half of our health care. Photo: Tim Gouw. Source: Picography Still, it’s important to understand what consumers are doing. The stock market almost never suffers a significant decline except during a [...]

Retail Sales – August 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:09:43+00:00September 15th, 2015|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

Although headline retail sales increased by only 0.2% m/m in August, that gain was dragged down by a price-related 1.8% m/m fall in gasoline station sales. The overall change from this time last year was an increase of 2.2%. The overall gain in headline sales was helped by a 0.7% m/m increase in motor vehicle sales, which isn't overly surprising given we already knew from auto manufacturers that unit auto sales reached a decade high in August. [...]

Retail Sales – July 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:11:43+00:00August 18th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Big upward revisions underscore a very solid and very important retail sales report. Retail sales rose 0.6 percent in July with June revised to unchanged from an initial reading of minus 0.3 percent and with May revised to a jump of 1.2 percent from 1.0 percent. The revisions to June and May point to an upward revision for second-quarter GDP. Vehicle sales, as expected, were the standout in July, jumping 1.4 percent to nearly reverse June's 1.5 [...]

Retail Sales – June 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:14:50+00:00July 14th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

The second-quarter suddenly doesn't look very strong as retail sales for June, showing broad weakness, came in way below expectations, at minus 0.3 percent. Motor vehicles were part of the reason, excluding which sales came in at only minus 0.1 percent. But excluding both autos and gasoline, core sales fell 0.2 percent. The bounce back for gasoline prices has given gas station sales a lift the last couple of months, up 0.8 percent in June following May's [...]

Retail Sales – May 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:17:34+00:00June 16th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

The consumer showed a lot of life in May, driving up retail sales 1.2 percent with gains sweeping nearly all components. A leading component in the month was motor vehicle sales which jumped 2.0 percent, excluding which retail sales still rose a very strong 1.0 percent. Another component showing special strength was gasoline sales which got a boost from higher prices. Still, excluding both of these components, retail sales ex-auto ex-gas gained a very solid 0.7 percent. [...]

Retail Sales – April 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:19:43+00:00May 19th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: , |

Consumer confidence may be strong but it still is not translating to strength for consumer spending. Retail sales were unchanged in April. Excluding autos, sales did rise but only barely at plus 0.1 and below expectations for 0.5 percent, while excluding both autos and gasoline, sales rose 0.2 percent vs expectations for a 0.4 percent gain. The surprising part of the report isn't the weakness in motor vehicles, which was signaled by weak unit sales and which [...]

Retail Sales – February 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:23:34+00:00March 18th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Retail sales dropped in February but gasoline prices are not to blame-rather auto sales. Retail sales in February declined 0.6 percent after decreasing 0.8 percent in January. The market consensus for February was for 0.3 percent gain. As expected from unit new auto sales data, auto sales dropped 2.5 percent, following a 0.5 percent rise in January. Excluding autos, sales decreased 0.1 percent, following a 1.1 percent drop in January. Analysts projected a 0.5 percent increase. Gasoline [...]

Retail Sales

By |2016-11-17T16:26:21+00:00February 17th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Lower gasoline prices continue to tug down on retail sales. And consumers are not yet putting higher discretionary income into spending on non-gasoline categories of retail sales even as confidence has improved. Retail sales in January fell 0.8 percent after declining an unrevised 0.9 percent in December. Excluding autos, sales decreased 0.9 percent-the same pace of decline as in December. Auto sales declined 0.5 percent after a drop of 0.8 percent in December. Excluding both autos and [...]