The factory sector, after a frustrating first half of the year, is now definitely showing life. Durable goods orders jumped 4.4 percent in July in a headline gain exaggerated by a swing higher for commercial aircraft but including gains across most readings. Excluding the gain for aircraft and no change for autos, orders rose a very sizable 1.5 percent. And the strength includes core capital goods where orders jumped 1.6 percent to show new demand for business [...]
Indications on the factory sector have been mixed as is April's durable goods report. The headline came in at a stronger-than-expected gain of 3.4 percent with March revised higher to a gain of 1.9 percent. Vehicles orders gave an important boost to April, up 2.9 percent as did the always volatile commercial aircraft component which swung 65 percent higher. But the ex-transportation reading, which excludes vehicles and commercial aircraft, rose a more modest and as-expected 0.4 percent. [...]
The factory sector posted a respectable March with orders for durable goods up 0.8 percent which follows a revised downswing of 3.1 percent in February and a very solid 4.3 percent gain in January. March reflects a big gain for defense goods which helped offset a downward swing for commercial aircraft. A negative in the report is a 3.0 percent decline for motor vehicle orders reflecting weakness at the retail level. Data on core capital goods orders [...]
Transportation equipment, specifically aircraft orders, are once again skewing durable goods orders which fell 2.0 percent in August as expected. Excluding transportation, durable goods were unchanged which is slightly lower than expected. Weakness here in part reflects a pause for core capital goods as nondefense ex-auto orders slipped 0.2 percent following two prior months of very solid growth. Looking at transportation equipment, both aircraft and motor vehicles were weak. Orders for civilian aircraft fell 12 percent in [...]
June was a strong month for durable goods orders which rose a slightly higher-than-expected 3.4 percent. Excluding transportation, which is where aircraft orders are tracked, new orders rose 0.8 percent which is near top-end expectations. Core capital goods orders, which also exclude aircraft, rose a very solid 0.9 percent. These readings are some of the highest of the last year and offer welcome evidence of a long awaited pop higher for what is, however, a still depressed [...]
Durable goods orders surged 4% in March, which was a pleasant surprise; but it turns out that virtually all of the durable goods’ surge was due to higher orders for commercial airplanes (up 30.6%); military hardware (up 17%); and vehicles (up 5.4%). “Core” durable goods orders, excluding commercial planes and military hardware, declined 0.5% in March. Core capital goods declined 0.4%, while the shipments of core capital goods also declined 0.4% in March. Furthermore, business investment declined [...]
Durables orders rebounded 2.8 percent in January after dropping 3.7 percent in December. Market expectations were for a 2.0 percent rebound. Excluding transportation, the core edged up 0.3 percent after slipping 0.9 percent in December. The median market forecast called for a 0.7 percent gain in January. Transportation rebounded 9.1 percent, following a monthly plunge of 10.1 percent the prior month. Motor vehicles declined 2.9 percent, nondefense aircraft surged a monthly 128.5 percent percent, and defense aircraft [...]
Today’s durable goods number was lousy, but here’s the overall chart:Total durable goods orders remain in an uptrend. Let’s keep an eye on this one, though. We’re 40% above the trough of March of ’09, and the uptrend from before was broken in May of ’08. Then it fell off the cliff.