Songs and Circles and Cycles

By |2018-01-05T14:59:58-04:00January 5th, 2018|Categories: Global Market Update|Tags: , , |

Can Joni Mitchell teach us something about investing? Photo: Earl53. Source: Morguefile 45 years ago, Joni Mitchell wrote “The Circle Game,” a lyrical epic about a young man’s gradual coming of age. The refrain repeats its central lesson: “We can’t return, we can only look behind from where we came / and go ‘round and ‘round and ‘round in a circle game.” Circles and cycles are part of investing. The economy cycles through growth and recession every [...]

The Missing Asset (Part 2)

By |2017-02-03T16:05:21-04:00February 3rd, 2017|Categories: Global Market Update|Tags: , , , |

Is this a good time to add real estate to a portfolio? Image: Real estate is a cyclical asset. When times are good, everyone is expanding. They want to be a part of the boom. When times are bad, it’s impossible to even think about positive returns, much less growth. And, of course, your perspective is always affected by your personal experience. While real estate is a global asset class, all real estate is local. Real [...]

Day to Day Data

By |2016-11-17T16:27:07-04:00February 9th, 2015|Categories: Global Market Update|Tags: , , |

It’s 5 o’clock. Do you know where your data is? Image Source: Business Korea Data breaches have become routine. Last year Sony, JP Morgan, Home Depot, and several other major corporations had been hacked. This year Anthem and TurboTax have been attacked. Hundreds of millions of personal records have been compromised. Are data breaches inevitable? For the moment, it sure seems that way. Government and corporate networks used to be separate. Foreign and domestic computers were distinct. [...]

Growth and Natural Cycles

By |2013-08-30T09:30:31-04:00August 30th, 2013|Categories: Global Market Update|Tags: , , |

Why does the economy grow? When we look at the natural world we see cycles of growth and decline. Gardens sprout in the spring, bear fruit in the summer, and die back in the fall. Populations of rabbits and deer grow until they’re everywhere and then collapse.  Rivers go into flood, then slow to a trickle. Only with economies do we see steady, long-term growth. A generation ago cars only went 100 thousand miles or so, and [...]

The Death of Investing?

By |2016-11-17T17:19:16-04:00May 11th, 2012|Categories: Global Market Update|Tags: , , |

What goes around comes around.Mark Twain famously noted that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. That is, there are broad themes that tend to reoccur, often generationally. Investors often forget or ignore the past, so they have a habit of giving in to their emotions and believing the stories that get peddled by fear-mongers or hope-machines, extrapolating past trends and ignoring the likelihood of regression to the mean.We won’t see another tech bubble again anytime [...]