Consumer Confidence – August 2016

By |2016-11-17T15:42:47-04:00August 31st, 2016|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

As goes the consumer so goes the U.S. economy. And the news has been mostly good and includes a nearly 4-1/2 point jump in the consumer confidence index to a 101.1 level for August. Both the expectations and present situation components posted gains in the month though the latter does show a sizable and unwanted 1.3 percentage point increase in those describing jobs as hard to get. But signals on jobs are mixed with other readings positive [...]

Consumer Confidence – July 2016

By |2016-11-17T15:44:47-04:00July 26th, 2016|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

Consumer confidence is solid, at 97.3 in July and holding onto nearly all of June's 5 point jump. Jobs-hard-to-get, a subcomponent of the present situation index, is offering a positive indication for the July employment report, falling to 22.3 percent from 23.7 percent in June which was already a very strong month for the labor market. And readings on future employment, which is a subcomponent of the expectations index, also show improvement with slightly more seeing more [...]

Consumer Confidence – June 2016

By |2016-11-17T15:47:03-04:00June 28th, 2016|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

The consumer sentiment report has been strong but less so for the consumer confidence report, at least until today's data for June where the index jumped nearly 6 points to a much higher-than-expected 98.0. This is the best reading of the year, since October last year. Both main components show strength with expectations up 6.0 points to 84.5 and the present situation up 5.1 points to 118.3. Strength in the former, led by income expectations, points to [...]

Consumer Confidence – May 2016

By |2016-11-17T15:49:31-04:00May 31st, 2016|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

Consumer confidence slowed in May in what is, however, a mixed report that includes some positives. The headline index fell 2.1 points to a lower-than-expected 92.6 vs a revised 94.7 in April. The assessment of the jobs market is mostly lower but not entirely. In a negative, those describing jobs as currently hard to get rose 1.6 percentage points to 24.4 percent but April's 22.8 percent was unusually low and a likely outlier. Looking at the future [...]

Consumer Confidence – April 2016

By |2016-11-17T15:52:35-04:00April 26th, 2016|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

The trivial decline in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to 94.2 in April, from 96.1, which just reversed the rise in March, leaves the index at a level normally consistent with real consumption growth of around 2%. The decline in the headline index was driven by a dip in the expectations index to a two-year low of 79.3 this month, from 83.6. It appears that the rebound in stock markets has been more than offset by [...]

Consumer Confidence – February 2016

By |2016-11-17T15:57:11-04:00February 23rd, 2016|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

There is a tangible slowing in the consumer confidence index, to 92.2 in February vs January's downward revised 97.8. Readings are broadly lower but only slightly lower for the most closely watched detail of the report which is jobs hard to get, rising 6 tenths to 24.2 percent which is still a very low reading and isn't convincing enough to point to a rise in the unemployment rate. Other readings show slightly more erosion but nothing dramatic. [...]

Consumer Confidence – January 2016

By |2016-11-17T16:00:40-04:00January 26th, 2016|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

Consumer spending may not be that strong but consumer confidence is solid, at 98.1. The assessment of the current jobs market is favorable with only 23.4 percent describing jobs as hard to get. This is a low percentage for this reading and down more than 1 percentage point from December. But improvement here is offset by a dip in those describing jobs as currently plentiful, down 1.4 percentage points to 22.8 percent. The mix of job readings [...]

Consumer Confidence

By |2016-01-05T15:39:09-04:00January 5th, 2016|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

Consumer confidence rebounded in December to a reading of 96.5, up from 92.6 in November. The present situation index increased from 110.9 last month to 115.3 in December, while the expectations index improved to 83.9 from 80.4 in November. Those saying business conditions are "good" increased from 25.0 percent to 27.3 percent. However, those saying business conditions are "bad" also increased -- from 16.9 percent to 19.8 percent. The important reading about the labor market was more [...]

Consumer Confidence – November 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:04:07-04:00November 24th, 2015|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

Lack of confidence in the outlook for the jobs market sank the consumer confidence index in November, which fell to 90.4 vs a revised 99.1 in October. The November reading is far under expectations and is the lowest since September last year. Expectations, one of two main components in this report, fell more than 10 points to 78.6 which is the lowest reading since February last year. The employment subcomponent here shows fewer consumers seeing jobs opening [...]

Consumer Confidence – October 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:06:29-04:00October 27th, 2015|Categories: Leading|Tags: |

A decline in the assessment of the current jobs market pulled down the consumer confidence index to a lower-than-expected 97.6 in October. This 5.0 points below a revised September. Consumers are saying there are fewer jobs available then there were in September and more say jobs are hard to get. But the latter reading, at 25.8 percent, is still low and consistent with low rates of unemployment. Still, these readings are weaker than September and helped pull [...]