Tech-Logo_ThumbUngewitter_FloatMark Ungewitter is a Senior Vice President
and Investment Officer at Charter Trust Company.
In this section you will find articles that look
at technical aspects of the market and the economy.

Japanese Equities: Is the Bear Market Over?

By |2016-12-01T15:45:26-04:00September 25th, 2013|Categories: Technical Perspective|

 Japanese Equities: Is the Bear Market Over?Charter Trust CompanyBy Mark UngewitterSeptember 25, 2013 Japanese equities have spent the last twenty-four years in a secular bear market defined by lower lows and lower highs in market price.  There is now hope that a new Prime Minister, and a new brand of economics, will reverse this multi-decade trend. An analogy with the post-1929 Dow Jones Industrial Average suggests that the Japanese market is indeed ripe for change.  But Japanese valuations are [...]

Emerging Markets: Time to Buy?

By |2016-12-01T15:45:31-04:00September 16th, 2013|Categories: Technical Perspective|

 Emerging Markets: Time to Buy?Charter Trust CompanyBy Mark UngewitterSeptember 16th, 2013Emerging markets have performed dismally over the past three years.  The bellwether MSCI index has moved essentially sideways over that period while losing a whopping 40% of its value relative to the S&P 500.  After such a severe underperformance, the sector is now beginning to show signs of improvement. The chart below shows that EEM (the bellwether emerging market fund) recently tested its 2008 bottom in terms of [...]

Don’t Buy Gold Below the 300-Day Moving Average

By |2016-12-01T15:45:36-04:00August 29th, 2013|Categories: Technical Perspective|

  Don't Buy Gold Below the 300-Day Moving Average Charter Trust Company By Mark Ungewitter August 29, 2013 Though gold bullion appears to have made a cyclical bottom, its long-term trend remains highly damaged.  From a behavioral perspective, the price of gold must surpass its 300-day moving average (currently near $1560) to prove that a secular bull market remains intact.  Long-term investors should recognize that the breakdown of April 2013 raised serious questions that have yet to [...]

US Equities: Secular Bull Market?

By |2016-12-01T15:45:41-04:00August 26th, 2013|Categories: Technical Perspective|

  US Equities: Secular Bull Market? Charter Trust Company By Mark Ungewitter August 23, 2013 Have US equities entered a new secular-bull market?  Or is the recent “breakout” to all-time highs just a “fakeout,” similar to those which have occurred during prior bear markets? The attached chart shows that the rally since 2009 has been very powerful, lifting the 10-year moving average to new highs by late 2011.  This is first-order evidence of a new secular trend. On [...]

Stocks v. Bonds: What Happens When Prices Decouple?

By |2016-12-01T15:45:54-04:00July 9th, 2013|Categories: Technical Perspective|

  Stocks v. Bonds: What Happens When Prices Decouple? Charter Trust Company By Mark Ungewitter July 9, 2013 Are today’s falling bond prices a sign of confidence in economic growth and earnings power? Or might higher bond yields derail the current equity bull market? While the answer is far from clear, history teaches us to be cautious when bond prices decline sharply during an extended equity rally. The attached chart presents the S&P 500 back to 1955, [...]

Cyclical Bond Reversion on Track

By |2016-12-01T15:45:56-04:00June 24th, 2013|Categories: Technical Perspective|

Cyclical Bond Reversion on Track Charter Trust CompanyBy Mark UngewitterJune 21, 2013 The evolving bond-market reversion, which  I have explored here and here, is on track to produce yields of 4.0% on 30-year Treasury bonds and 3.0% on 10-year Treasury notes.  (See charts 1 & 2 below.)  This would constitute a normal process which has occurred time after time in recent decades, even in the post-ZIRP environment. So, what could go wrong with the full-cyclical-reversion scenario?  Lots of things, of course.  [...]

Will bonds complete a normal cyclical reversion?

By |2016-12-01T15:46:01-04:00May 29th, 2013|Categories: Technical Perspective|

I recently explored the possibility of a bond “massacre” akin to that of 1994.  In 1994, the market was surprised by the Fed’s aggressive response to improving economic conditions.  This resulted in a 26% price loss in 30-year Treasury bonds from cyclical top to cyclical bottom. But is the 1994 experience relevant today?  With New York Fed chief Bill Dudley and other Fed officials explicitly discussing the need to avoid a 1994-like scenario, perhaps another analogy is more [...]

Technical Perspective – U.S. Equities: Does Valuation Matter?

By |2016-12-01T15:46:03-04:00April 15th, 2013|Categories: Technical Perspective|

  Is Gold Signaling a Secular Bull Market in Common Stocks? Charter Trust Company By Mark Ungewitter April 15, 2013 Gold is an asset that some people love to hate.  Intelligent investors, however, should keep an open mind toward the shiny metal and the message it conveys.  Since gold was floated in 1970, it has exhibited a low (and often inverse) correlation with common stocks.  Remarkably, both assets have been supported by a 6.7% rising slope.  Yet [...]