Lagging Economic Indicators

Case-Shiller Home Prices – November 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:00:45+00:00January 26th, 2016|Categories: Lagging|Tags: |

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.3% annual increase in November 2015 versus a 5.1% increase in October 2015. The 10-City Composite increased 5.3% in the year to November compared to 5.0% previously. The 20-City Composite’s year-over-year gain was 5.8% versus 5.5% reported in October. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.1% month-over-month in November. The 10- City [...]

JOLTS – November 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:01:40+00:00January 12th, 2016|Categories: Lagging|Tags: |

Job openings are holding steady in November, at 5.431 million vs a revised 5.349 million in October. Openings peaked back in July at 5.668 million and have since flattened. Hirings, though solid at 5.197 million, have also flattened as have other readings including the quits rate which is unchanged at 2.0 percent. Limited movement in the quits rate points to limited upward mobility for the workforce. This report is edging higher but doesn't show the outright strength [...]

Employment Report – December 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:01:41+00:00January 12th, 2016|Categories: Lagging|Tags: |

The labor market is stronger than most assessments with December results well outside top-end estimates and big upward revisions underscoring the strength of prior months. Nonfarm payrolls jumped 292,000 in December which is 92,000 above the consensus. The gain importantly is led by professional & business services which is considered a leading component for future hiring and which rose 73,000 for the second outsized gain of the last three months. Construction, boosted by the nation's unseasonable weather, [...]

JOLTS – October 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:03:31+00:00December 8th, 2015|Categories: Lagging|Tags: |

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.4 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.1 million and 4.9 million, respectively. As a percentage of total employment, job openings fell 1 tenth to 3.6 percent which is still, for comparison, 2 tenths higher than October last year. The hiring rate held steady at 3.6 percent with the quits rate [...]

GDP – Q3 2015

By |2015-11-24T12:23:38+00:00November 24th, 2015|Categories: Lagging|Tags: |

NO CHART Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.9 percent. The GDP estimate released today is [...]

JOLTS – September 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:05:08+00:00November 15th, 2015|Categories: Lagging|Tags: |

In a positive sign for labor demand, job openings in the JOLTS report popped back up in September, to 5.526 million from a revised 5.377 million in August. Openings peaked in July at a recovery best 5.668 million. High job demand will absorb yet more slack from what is a dwindling supply of available labor, in what could precede wage inflation and become a major concern for Fed policy makers. But in a contrasting indication of worker [...]

Employment Situation – September 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:07:41+00:00October 7th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators, Lagging, Leading|

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000 to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less [...]

JOLTS – July 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:09:25+00:00September 15th, 2015|Categories: Lagging|Tags: |

The number of job openings again rose to a series high of 5.8 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Professional & business services, which is considered to be a leading component for total employment, led the gains with a 122,000 increase followed by accommodation & food services at 82,000 and retail at 77,000. The number of hires and separations edged down to 5.0 million and 4.7 million, [...]

JOLTS – June 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:11:33+00:00August 18th, 2015|Categories: Lagging|Tags: |

Jobs openings decreased in June to 5.249 million from 5.357 million in May. The number of job openings (yellow) are up 11% year-over-year compared to June 2014. Quits are up 11% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). This is another solid report. It is a good sign that job openings are over 5 million - just off the all time high set last month - and [...]

Case Shiller Home Prices – May 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:13:33+00:00July 28th, 2015|Categories: Lagging|

Case-Shiller reports surprising weakness in home prices, at minus 0.2 percent in May. Year-on-year, prices are flat at plus 4.9 percent which is 3 tenths below the low estimate. The data include a sizable downward revision to April which is now unchanged from an initial gain of 0.3 percent. Declines are widespread, hitting 12 of 20 cities including a second straight decline, at a steep minus 0.7 percent in May, for the usually very strong San Francisco. [...]