Coincident Economic Indicators

ISM Manufacturing Index – June 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:15:18+00:00July 7th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the 30th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 73rd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The June PMI® registered 53.5 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point over the May reading of [...]

Consumer Confidence – June 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:15:58+00:00June 30th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

June consumer confidence confirms last week's consumer sentiment report that spirits -- and especially expectations -- are rising to their strongest levels of the recovery. The consumer confidence index jumped nearly 7 points to a 101.4 level. The report's expectations component, like that of the consumer sentiment report, is a standout, surging 8.2 points to 94.6 and reflecting significant optimism over the outlook for jobs and the outlook for income. The report's present situation component is also [...]

Case Shiller Price index – April 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:16:03+00:00June 30th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|

The 10-City Composite gained 4.6% year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.2% annual gain in April 2015 versus a 4.3% increase in March 2015. After seasonal adjustment, the National index was unchanged; the 10- and 20-city composites were up 0.3% and 0.4%. For the first time since all the way back in September, minus signs suddenly appear on the city [...]

CPI – May 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:17:01+00:00June 23rd, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Just about all the readings in the May consumer price report point to very soft price pressures with the overall monthly gain, at plus 0.4 percent, and the ex-food ex-gasoline core gain, at only plus 0.1 percent. The 0.4 percent overall gain may look a bit high compared with prior months including April's 0.1 percent rise, but it reflects an unsurprising jump in energy costs specifically gasoline which jumped 10.4 percent in the month. But energy prices [...]

Retail Sales – May 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:17:34+00:00June 16th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

The consumer showed a lot of life in May, driving up retail sales 1.2 percent with gains sweeping nearly all components. A leading component in the month was motor vehicle sales which jumped 2.0 percent, excluding which retail sales still rose a very strong 1.0 percent. Another component showing special strength was gasoline sales which got a boost from higher prices. Still, excluding both of these components, retail sales ex-auto ex-gas gained a very solid 0.7 percent. [...]

Industrial Production – April 2015

By |2015-05-20T08:08:19+00:00May 19th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|

Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in April for its fifth consecutive monthly loss. Manufacturing output was unchanged in April after recording an upwardly revised gain of 0.3 percent in March. In April, the index for mining moved down 0.8 percent, its fourth consecutive monthly decrease; a sharp fall in oil and gas well drilling has more than accounted for the overall decline in mining this year. The output of utilities fell 1.3 percent in April. At 105.2 [...]

Retail Sales – April 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:19:43+00:00May 19th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: , |

Consumer confidence may be strong but it still is not translating to strength for consumer spending. Retail sales were unchanged in April. Excluding autos, sales did rise but only barely at plus 0.1 and below expectations for 0.5 percent, while excluding both autos and gasoline, sales rose 0.2 percent vs expectations for a 0.4 percent gain. The surprising part of the report isn't the weakness in motor vehicles, which was signaled by weak unit sales and which [...]

Retail Sales – February 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:23:34+00:00March 18th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Retail sales dropped in February but gasoline prices are not to blame-rather auto sales. Retail sales in February declined 0.6 percent after decreasing 0.8 percent in January. The market consensus for February was for 0.3 percent gain. As expected from unit new auto sales data, auto sales dropped 2.5 percent, following a 0.5 percent rise in January. Excluding autos, sales decreased 0.1 percent, following a 1.1 percent drop in January. Analysts projected a 0.5 percent increase. Gasoline [...]

Retail Sales

By |2016-11-17T16:26:21+00:00February 17th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Lower gasoline prices continue to tug down on retail sales. And consumers are not yet putting higher discretionary income into spending on non-gasoline categories of retail sales even as confidence has improved. Retail sales in January fell 0.8 percent after declining an unrevised 0.9 percent in December. Excluding autos, sales decreased 0.9 percent-the same pace of decline as in December. Auto sales declined 0.5 percent after a drop of 0.8 percent in December. Excluding both autos and [...]

Retail Sales – October 2014

By |2016-11-17T16:32:46+00:00December 6th, 2014|Categories: Coincident Indicators, Economics|Tags: |

Retail sales in October were up despite downward headwinds from lower gasoline prices. Retail sales in October rebounded 0.3 percent after declining 0.3 percent in September.  Analysts forecast a 0.2 percent rise for October. Auto sales made a partial rebound of 0.5 percent after a 1.2 percent drop in September and jump of 1.8 percent in August, largely reflecting unit new motor vehicle sales.  Excluding autos, sales gained 0.3 percent after no change in September.  Expectations were [...]