Coincident Economic Indicators

ISM index – May 2016

By |2016-11-17T15:48:47-04:00June 7th, 2016|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the third consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 84th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The May PMI® registered 51.3 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the April reading of [...]

CPI – December 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:01:00-04:00January 25th, 2016|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: , |

Consumer prices are showing a little pressure but not a great deal. Though the CPI slipped 0.1 percent in December, the core rate did edge 1 tenth higher. Year-on-year, both rates are inching higher, at plus 0.7 percent for total prices, up 2 tenths from November, and at 2.1 percent for the core, up 1 tenth in the month and right at the Fed's 2 percent inflation target. Still, the core reading is well short of the [...]

PPI – October 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:04:55-04:00November 15th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|

Demand for services had been holding up producer prices but not for the last two reports. PPI-FD fell an unexpected 0.4 percent in October. Year-on-year, prices are down a very sizable 1.6 percent. Services prices fell 0.3 percent in October following what was then an unexpected 0.4 percent decline in September. Year-on-year, services prices are up only 0.1 percent. Services are supposed to be insulated from global effects including price effects, and the downturn for this reading [...]

Retail Sales – October 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:04:59-04:00November 15th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Retail sales slowed in October but fundamentally remain solid. Sales rose only 0.1 percent. But when excluding vehicles, which slipped back after surging in prior months, and when also excluding gasoline stations, where sales once again fell on price weakness, core sales rose a respectable 0.3 percent which hits the consensus. And there are solid gains - including housing-related components of furniture & home furnishings and building materials & garden equipment. Nonstore retailers also show a strong [...]

Employment Situation – September 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:07:41-04:00October 7th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators, Lagging, Leading|

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000 to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less [...]

Industrial Production – August 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:09:32-04:00September 15th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|

Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in August after increasing 0.9 percent in July. The increase in July is now estimated to be greater than originally reported last month, largely as a result of upward revisions for mining and utilities. Manufacturing output fell 0.5 percent in August primarily because of a large drop in motor vehicles and parts that reversed a substantial portion of its jump in July; production elsewhere in manufacturing was unchanged. The index for mining [...]

PPI-FD – July 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:11:27-04:00August 18th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|

A rise in costs for trade services pushed wholesale prices up slightly more than expected in July though trends are not pointing to sustained pressure. The PPI-FD rose 0.2 percent with the year-on-year a little bit deeper in the negative column at minus 0.8 percent. Excluding food & energy, prices rose 0.3 percent which looks high but the year-on-year rate actually slowed to plus 0.6 percent from 0.8 percent. Trade services rose 0.4 percent in the month [...]

Retail Sales – July 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:11:43-04:00August 18th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

Big upward revisions underscore a very solid and very important retail sales report. Retail sales rose 0.6 percent in July with June revised to unchanged from an initial reading of minus 0.3 percent and with May revised to a jump of 1.2 percent from 1.0 percent. The revisions to June and May point to an upward revision for second-quarter GDP. Vehicle sales, as expected, were the standout in July, jumping 1.4 percent to nearly reverse June's 1.5 [...]

Industrial Production – June 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:14:13-04:00July 21st, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in June but fell at an annual rate of 1.4 percent for the second quarter of 2015. In June, manufacturing output was unchanged: The output of motor vehicles and parts fell 3.7 percent, but production elsewhere in manufacturing rose 0.3 percent. The indexes for mining and utilities advanced 1.0 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. At 105.7 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in June was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier [...]

Retail Sales – June 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:14:50-04:00July 14th, 2015|Categories: Coincident Indicators|Tags: |

The second-quarter suddenly doesn't look very strong as retail sales for June, showing broad weakness, came in way below expectations, at minus 0.3 percent. Motor vehicles were part of the reason, excluding which sales came in at only minus 0.1 percent. But excluding both autos and gasoline, core sales fell 0.2 percent. The bounce back for gasoline prices has given gas station sales a lift the last couple of months, up 0.8 percent in June following May's [...]