Portfolio Review – August 13, 2015

By |2016-11-17T16:12:04+00:00August 14th, 2015|Categories: Portfolio Review|Tags: , , , |

Our 2015 forecast for the domestic economy appears to be valid and is supporting the current prevailing direction. We were not the most popular forecaster back in 2015, but we did not see the underlying support in global economic activity that many others had wished. The probability is still highest for slow and steady economic growth that will move the domestic market in a fair value range between a high of 23,897 and a [...]

Stir-Frying Stocks: Characterizing the Chinese Stock Market

By |2016-11-17T16:13:12+00:00July 30th, 2015|Categories: Contested Spaces|Tags: , , , |

The tepid response of the Shanghai stock market to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) stimulus efforts has some American market commentators wondering out loud if this is China’s “1929”. Articles on the average investor’s unknown exposure (and destruction of US dollar wealth) to China abound. The daily charts are nasty, indeed, and on some days the negativity spread to other Asian stock markets. Despite recent drops, still up 17% for the year. But comments in [...]

Even Emperors are Dwarfed by the Environment

By |2016-11-17T16:15:02+00:00July 9th, 2015|Categories: Contested Spaces|Tags: , , |

Xuanzong’s Journey to Shu depicts the Tang dynasty Emperor Xuanzong retreating from his capital in Chang’an to Sichuan province during the An Lushan rebellion, ending the golden age of the Tang dynasty’s influence and wealth. The emperor’s train is hard to discern from the rising mountains and is in fact partly hidden as they make their way over hills and around bends. Xuanzong is regarded as responsible for the pinnacle of the dynasty’s power but also responsible [...]